Ethiopian Economist Wins International Award

Ethiopian Economist Wins International Award

 

Addis Ababa, September 8 (WIC) - Dr. Halefom Belay, Professor of Economics at Whitman College in Washington State, has won the prestigious Abramson Scroll Award from the American National Association for Business Economics (NABE), for an outstanding contribution for business economics, sources at the University said.

 

The NABE, once headed by Alan Greenspan, current chairman of the Federal Reserve Bank of the US, is an association of approximately 3000 members, representing more than 1500 businesses and other organizations from around the world.

 

The award was given for a paper titled "Bayesian VAR Forecasts Fail to Live up to their Promise", authored by Dr. Halefom and two of his colleagues.

 

The paper argues that macroeconomic forecasts from vector auto regression (VAR) models did not continue their early success of the 1980s. For the period 1981-1996, judgmentally adjusted large structural macro-economic models forecast more accurately than Bayesian VAR models.

 

The conclusions of their paper have significant impact on forecasting by firms and decision makers in business, which are using VAR and other models.

 

The award will be presented to Dr. Halefom and his co-authors at the Annual NABE conference in Chicago on Monday, September 11, 2000. With the award comes a plaque, recognition in "Business Economics" and in "Who's who in Business Economics", NABE's directory of membership.